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 Martin Wainwright 

The colder of Britain's two contending weather fronts has established a grip on the eastern half of the country, with temperatures falling to lows below -10C overnight and fresh snow likely before the weekend.

Severe weather alerts for ice are in force along the entire North Sea coast and stretching inland as far as the Pennines, Birmingham, Oxford and Hampshire, which mark the border with the warmer west.

A counter-push from Atlantic fronts, rather than further icy easterlies, will bring snow when bands of rain move in from the west, probably late on Thursday and into Friday, and freeze on meeting the cold conditions. Forecasters are predicting three- to 6cm of snow in the Midlands and East Anglia on Friday, with lighter falls further north and south.

The tenacious grip of icy ground temperatures has not altered longer range predictions of milder and unsettled weather gaining ground from next week and to the end of February. The Met Office warned that high winds rather than low temperatures were likely to be a hazard going into March – the month traditionally said to "come in like a roaring lion".

Victoria Kettley, a forecaster for MeteoGroup, said: "Scotland and Northern Ireland will see a front move in during today which could bring some snow in western Scotland – possibly a couple of centimetres on higher ground. It will push south-east overnight and edge into Northumberland and Cumbria by tomorrow morning. There could be rain, sleet and snow on high ground as the leading edge of the front pushes through, as well as the risk of freezing rain.

"Some weather models are showing significant snow for the Midlands of up to 6cm on Friday, but it is uncertain if the precipitation the front is bringing will fall as rain, sleet, or snow."

Dry, bright but cold weather is expected to dominate again on Wednesday in England and Wales, with cloudier conditions in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Temperatures will struggle to top 3C, according to forecasters, before plummeting again on Wednesday at dusk.

The Met Office deployed its concept of "100% probability" to suggest the certainty of "severe cold weather and icy conditions until 10am on Friday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients." Travellers have been reminded that lower ground than air temperatures pose a severe danger of black ice, especially after rainfall.

Tributes have been paid to a well-known cheesemaker and a schoolboy who died in the recent icy spell, although the weather has not been confirmed as the cause. Mandy Reed, 47, whose Swaledale cheese has won many awards, was found dead in a neighbour's garden near Richmond, North Yorkshire, after returning late from a family celebration. In Castleford, West Yorkshire, 10-year-old Joshua Houlgate collapsed and died while playing in the snow.

Gary Verity, chair of Welcome to Yorkshire, the regional tourist board, said: "[Mandy] was a familiar sight at Leyburn market on a Friday, and was known as 'the cheese lady'. She will be sadly missed." Julie Murray, headteacher at Smawthorne Henry Moore primary school, Castleford, said that Joshua, who had suffered from epilepsy when younger, "held a very special place in our hearts. He was a much-loved pupil who was well liked by his friends and all the staff at school."

In Hull, a man believed to be in his 50s was found dead in a park after overnight temperatures fell to -7C. But snow saved a cyclist from serious injury when he was caught by a rope strung across an offroad track at Hamsterley in County Durham. Police are investigating the incident, which left Lukasz Sikorski, 29, with bruises and a rope-burn.

Guardian