Left-Green revival in France

The first round of the elections for the 26 French regional assemblies, which took place on March 14, has resulted in a thumping win for the Socialist Party (PS), led by Martine Aubry, over the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), President Nicolas Sarkozy's conservative party. The UMP trails in almost all 22 regions of metropolitan France, namely the mainland plus Corsica. Interior Ministry figures show the PS as having gained 29.5 per cent of the vote, well ahead of the UMP's 26.2 per cent and the environmentalist Europe Ecologie's 12.5 per cent. The campaign was marred by acrimony and racist and sexist diatribes as Mr. Sarkozy's colleagues followed his lead (in previous elections) with tough positions on crime, immigration, and the national identity. Yet that strategy has been rejected by habitual conservative voters.

It has even failed to attract support from Jean-Marie Le Pen's hard-right anti-immigrant National Front (FN), which tallied 11.55 per cent. The second round takes place on March 21; despite some confusion over the announcements, the PS and Europe Ecologie have announced that their party lists will be combined in all but three regions.

As the regional elections constitute the last major ballot before the next presidential election, due in 2012, they are being seen as a national referendum on Mr. Sarkozy. That the results show immense dissatisfaction and even dislike for him and the UMP is not in doubt. Unemployment, at 10 per cent, is France's highest for a decade; businesses are closing, and farm incomes are diminishing, which is very serious in a culture proud of its regional agriculture. About a million French citizens are expected to slide further into poverty as their unemployment benefit runs out and they are transferred to other categories of state benefits. As for the economy, the French central bank's growth prediction is 0.4 per cent for the first quarter of 2010. Dissatisfaction with the President's policies is, however, only part of the voters' message.

Many analysts see the low turnout, 46.35 per cent, as a symptom of a deep discontent with the nature of contemporary politics. This may partly account for the strong National Front performance. But the PS and Europe Ecologie have realised that they are the parties that can do most with the first-round results; the former can win back large numbers of Left-inclined voters, and the latter can use their strong showing to initiate a new political agenda, this time as substantial members of a Left-green bloc. The stakes are high. The French Left and its associates have been given their best opportunity for a long time. HN