British parties at the starting gate

On April 6, the British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, asked the Queen to dissolve parliament for a general election on May 6. The campaign will take place with the country in the deepest gloom and uncertainty it has known in decades. It is in its worst recession for 80 years, under a prime minister whose colleagues have tried to remove him thrice in three years. Led by the nose by the United States, New Labour has ensured that the country has been at war for nearly as long as the two world wars combined.

There is intense public disgust over the state of British politics. The continuing scandal over MPs' expenses is only part of the political culture of deceit, the worst manifestation of which has been the orchestrated lying over Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction. Public discontent has also been expressed in the declining turnout rate, which fell from 71.4 per cent in 1997 to 61.4 per cent in 2005, when the Labour Party won its third successive majority, this time of 68 seats on a vote of 21.2 per cent of the electorate. The British political class, however, has only recently heard even part of the message.

Defying heavy odds, Labour is doing surprisingly well in the opinion polls. It can now expect to emerge as the largest party. David Cameron's Conservatives, who led Labour by 45 per cent to 30 per cent in November 2008, have been slipping steadily in the opinion polls and the odds on a hung Parliament are shortening by the week. The Tories, funded mainly by big business and the very rich, will play on Labour's proposed increases in National Insurance contributions. Labour, desperate to recover its core vote, is talking cautiously of state support for the economy and less oppressive target-driven monitoring for the public services. The third main party, Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats, looks coherent enough.

But it has seen its major constitutional plans, such as reform of the Simple Majority electoral system for general elections and the creation of a fully elected upper chamber, hijacked by Labour only to be abandoned in the rush to pass pending legislation. A major education bill suffered the same fate, while some poorly drafted bills were passed. British voters will probably not see any improved political culture. On the positive side, the Lib Dems may not be the only beneficiaries of public discontent; the Green Party, led by the highly capable Caroline Lucas and with a strong record from the 2009 European Parliament elections, is fielding no fewer than 300 candidates. The old guard of Labour and the Tories could be in for some nasty surprises in May. HN