Another election 'within 12 months'

By Harry Wallop, Consumer Affairs Editor

 
As the Conservatives started to negotiate with the Liberal Democrats about forming some form of alliance, political historians warned that it there was a strong chance that Britain would be forced to go to the polls by as soon as the end of the year.

Dr Richard Toye, an historian at Exeter University, said: "I'd bet on an election in October or November this year."

Minority parties to hold India's next government 'to ransom'According to the latest odds, being quoted by Betfair, the chances of a second election by the end of 2010 jumped from 28 per cent to 38 per cent during the course of the Friday, as political betters started to lay money on a Conservative-led alliance falling apart and David Cameron going to the country in an attempt to win an outright majority.

The last time Britain elected a hung parliament, in February 1974, it resulted in a second election in October of that year, eight months later.

Dr David Butler of Nuffield College, Oxford, one of the country's leading election experts, said there was likely be another election very soon, “because I don’t see the compromises that are necessary for a coalition.”

He told the BBC: “I think the 1974 analogy is a very strong one and I think if Cameron does carry the next government, a minority government, he has a very good chance of winning a clear majority in a quick election afterwards.”

The cost of a general election for the parties, however, is estimated to run to about £40 million in total and most would want to avoid going to the polls if possible.

"Elections are very expensive for the parties," said Dr Toye. "None of the parties are in a particularly strong financial position, but a second election could hammer the Liberal Democrats. They can only afford to fight one election every five years."

The Conservatives were already preparing for the worst, and had started last month to sound out donors to help fund a second fight. The Labour Party, however, would be reliant on the unions to fund any further election.

Labour is understood to owe £11.5 million to its backers.

Historically, no minority government has lasted much more than two years. The hung parliament of 1974 lasted for eight months, while the hung parliament of 1923 lasted for less than a year. The Telegraph