AV Vote Could Change Political Landscape

Sophy Ridge, political correspondent

People across the country will today decide whether or not to change the way politicians are elected in the first nationwide referendum since 1975.

Votes will also be cast to elect councils in England, a parliament in Scotland and assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland. Other regions will elect local mayors or MPs.

And voters' decisions today could make a real difference to local services - under immense financial pressure - depending on which political parties control English councils.

Voters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will, of course, be directly impacted by a change of power.

Some believe AV will make it more difficult for Labour to win an election because they will have to do more deals with smaller parties.
 
Switching the electoral system from First Past the Post to the Alternative Vote could transform democracy in the country.

But the result will also heavily alter the dynamics in Westminster.

No matter which way the country votes, one half of the coalition government will face serious political problems over the AV vote.

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg - currently facing huge pressure from within his own party - could emerge as a hero if the 'Yes' team win.

Meanwhile, David Cameron would face an "open rebellion" among his backbenchers, Conservative MPs have told Sky News.

Many Tories believe Mr Cameron should never have accepted a referendum in the coalition agreement, as they feel AV would harm their ability to form majority Conservative governments in the future.

But if the 'No' campaign wins, Mr Clegg will be in trouble with his party.

Liberal Democrats, already struggling with plunging poll ratings and fury over tuition fees, could ask whether they should have gone into coalition in the first place.

The party's ministers have said the result will not threaten the future of the coalition - but some backbenchers are not so sure.

There are many disgruntled Lib Dems already being touted as possible leadership challengers.

For David Cameron, a 'No' vote will prove that conceding a referendum in order to win Lib Dem backing was a gamble worth taking.

But he will come under pressure to give a consolation prize to the Lib Dems in the form of concessions to keep the coalition intact. The political situation will also become more fraught after the local elections.

More than 9,500 seats in 279 councils are being contested in most of England, bar London and a few counties.

Both the Lib Dems and the Conservatives are braced for heavy losses. The Conservatives - who are defending 5,000 seats - are expected to lose the highest number.

If the ComRes poll is broadly right then the Yes campaign are not just heading for defeat, but a humiliating rout.

Governing parties are often punished in local elections, but the results are expected to be more damaging for the Lib Dems.

Nick Clegg's party is predicted to lose the largest proportion of seats, with pollsters expecting around a third to go.

Heavy losses will increase the pressure on Nick Clegg, and the loss of Sheffield Council could be a psychological blow in the city that contains his parliamentary seat.

With the fewest number of MPs, the party is more reliant on its local councillors than its rivals.

Labour is expected to be the big winner, with pollsters predicting gains of up to 1,000 seats.

However, the weight of expectation is on Labour Party leader Ed Miliband's shoulders and if he fails to make the predicted gains there could be rumblings of discontent in his party.

Mr Miliband accompanied his partner Justine Thornton to a polling station in Highgate, north London this morning as she cast her vote, but did not respond to questions from waiting reporters.

He has already voted in the Doncaster Council election and AV referendum by post.

Labour also has a battle on its hands in Scotland. The latest polls suggest the Scottish National Party is on course to be well ahead as the largest party with around 60 seats.

Such a result for Alex Salmond's party would cement his position as First Minister and make a referendum on Scottish independence more likely.

A poor result for Labour in Scotland would counter the party's gains in England.

Meanwhile, elections to the Welsh Assembly are on a knife edge, with some polls suggesting Labour will obtain a slight majority.

The result in Northern Ireland is not expected to change dramatically, although it is possible Sinn Fein could enjoy a late surge of support to become the largest party.

But it is clear the votes cast in tomorrow's array of elections could transform the political landscape across the nation. Sky News