Blair hopeful for Middle East peace

Daniel Boffey, policy editor 

Tony Blair says that he sees signs of optimism in the Middle East, including in Iraq, despite rising casualty figures there and the escalating "living nightmare" in Syria.

The fundamental problems of the region are being brought to the surface, the former prime minister believes, and are ripe to be confronted and overcome. Blair takes comfort from the opening of negotiations between Israel and Palestine, an issue over which he admits he has toiled "often fruitlessly". But writing in the Observer on Sunday he says he also sees grounds for hope across the region, including in Iraq despite the growth of sectarian violence there after a period in which casualty figures had been on the decline. "In Iraq, after years where the sectarian violence declined year on year, the casualty figures are back up again in part through the war in Syria," he writes. "Yet even here, there was recently a seminal statement from Najaf by the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most influential Shia cleric in Iraq, proclaiming the need for a civil not religious state, in which all people had freedom equally to participate and disagreeing with those close to Iran who want Shia to go to Syria to fight for Assad alongside Hezbollah.

"At the commencement of Ramadan, the king of Saudi Arabia, who is also the keeper of the two holy mosques, made a powerful statement reclaiming the faith of Islam from those who would pervert it, in the name of politics.

"Libya and Tunisia are far from settled, as the assassination of the leading opposition politician in Tunisia and the presence of unrestrained militia in Libyan towns, show. But the democrats aren't giving up. Across the bulge of the northern part of sub-Saharan Africa there are huge challenges now from well-armed and financed terrorists groups that have imported this toxic ideology from the Middle East. Countries such as Nigeria have suffered horribly from a terror based on religious extremism that is alien to their society. But again, despite it all, the country is experiencing rapid economic growth and there has just been a major reform of the power sector, something people thought impossible a short time ago.

"Egypt could pivot back towards democracy, with a constitution that is genuinely inclusive and objectively administered. There is the promise of elections by early 2014 and all parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood, could take part. Or it could become paralysed, incapable of moving forward." Blair also reiterates his belief that the west should intervene in the growing crisis in Syria. "However much we may wish to look away, the consequences of leaving the bloodbath in Syria to take whatever course it may will be absolutely disastrous for the region and for our security." /Guardian