Local and European elections: the main parties' hopes and fears

Rowena Mason

Good day

The best David Cameron can hope for is minimising losses in the local elections to fewer than 100 out of its 1,574 seats and taking a few areas off the Liberal Democrats, such as Kingston. Having played down expectations, the prime minister would be able to spin this as a victory of sorts, given the electorate's tendency to give the government a kicking outside general elections. To make it an extraordinarily good day, he would have to win seats in the north, showing that he has the potential to win a majority at the next election by breaking into Labour-dominated areas. In the European elections, it would be considered good for the party to get more than 20 seats and come first.

Bad day

A poor result in the local elections would see the party failing to keep control of battleground councils such as Trafford in Greater Manchester, Amber Valley in Derbyshire and West Lancashire. These are crucial for the Conservatives if they are to keep any sort of presence in the north of England. Hanging on to Swindon will also be a key test. If the party loses anything more than about 200 seats, it will start to look poor for the prime minister and deal a blow to revived Tory optimism about the general election. In the Europeans, it would be pretty bad for the Conservatives to come third behind Ukip and Labour. Getting fewer than 15 seats could lead to some serious unrest on the backbenches over Cameron's European strategy.

Labour 

Good day

Labour should gain 300 to 500 council seats to show it is on course to win the general election next year, although party sources are dampening expectations by suggesting a good night would look like gaining 150 to 200 seats. As the opposition, Ed Miliband's party is in the best position to make gains, with London boroughs such as Tower Hamlets, Merton, Croydon and Redbridge looking eminently winnable. A very good day would see Labour winning in areas outside its northern and city heartlands such as Crawley and Cambridge in the south. In the European polls, more than 20 seats and a win would be a victory.

Bad day

Miliband has the most to lose if he does not add substantially to Labour's 1,788 council seats. With expectations high, it will be a bad day if it looks anything like a continuation of the status quo, with only modest gains. Losing control of a council like Great Yarmouth because of Ukip would not look good, as would a failure to make in-roads in the south of England. Labour is prepared for a Ukip victory in the Europeans but it would still pile pressure on Miliband if the party were to fall into second place – or even, as an outside possibility, into third placebehind the Conservatives.

Ukip 

Good day

Ukip will claim victory if it becomes the official opposition on any council and a double victory if it manages to take control of one. Last year it got a large number of councillors on the Kent and Lincolnshire county authorities. The party will be hoping to replicate this in places like Great Yarmouth, Basildon, Eastleigh, Thurrock and Gosport, plus maybe some unitary authorities with a third of seats up for elections like Portsmouth, Plymouth, Southampton and Southend. In the Europeans, nothing short of a victory will satisfy Nigel Farage, who has said he believes Ukip will triumph.

Bad day

It would look like the Ukip bubble has burst if the party only manages to get one or two seats on councils here and there. Regardless of the European election results, Ukip needs to show it is trusted to deal with national and local issues. It will have little hope of a breakthrough at the general election next year if it has not built up a strong presence on local authorities, like the Lib Dems did in the 1990s. Coming second and getting fewer than 20 seats would be very disappointing for Farage given how much he has built up the contest.

Liberal Democrats

Good day

The Lib Dems are likely to lose at least 200 seats out of its 732 seats. Holding on to anything more than that will be counted as a success and a sign that it can maintain its strongholds in the general election. Keeping the London borough of Kingston out of the hands of the Tories as well as areas of the south-west from falling to no overall control will be key. For Clegg's party, a good day means holding their ground as there is little talk of any actual gains. It is a measure of the party's predicament that losing up to two-thirds of their 12 MEPs would see senior people in the party breathing a sigh of relief that it was not even worse.

Bad day

A bad day looks like heavy losses in their strongest London boroughs of Kingston and Sutton, as well as areas of the south-west. Really heavy losses of more than 400 – over half their contested seats – could even trigger a leadership challenge to Clegg with Danny Alexander, Vince Cable and Tim Farron waiting in the wings as potential successors. There is talk he could stay as deputy prime minister while someone else leads the party. In the Europeans, it is not inconceivable that the party will be wiped out, getting no MEP seats at all, casting doubt on Clegg's decision to tackle Nigel Farage in television debates on Europe.

Greens

Good day

Almost any gains will be a good day for the Greens. The party is targeting Camden, Westminster and less traditional places such as Solihull. Like Ukip, the party wants to build up local strongholds that that give it a chance of gaining more MPs than its single one in Brighton. In the Europeans the party is currently polling higher than the Liberal Democrats and will be hoping to win up to five seats on a good day.

Bad day

The Greens will be gloomy if they fail to make headway outside of their usual council territory in the south-east. It would be particularly tough for them if they have to watch Ukip scoop up the majority of protest votes from former Labour and Lib Dem supporters, as the leader, Natalie Bennett, has attempted to steer the party beyond its core message on the environment to talk about wider issues such as rail renationalisation and protecting the NHS. In the Europeans, the voting system means it would not be hard for the Greens to get nothing at all, losing both their two current seats. /Guardian