Conservative conference: What to expect

By Pippa Simm

The Conservative Party gathers in Manchester on Sunday for its first conference as a party in a majority government since 1996. What can we expect from the four-day event?

Buoyed by its unexpected general election victory in May, which saw David Cameron see off his political rivals and deliver a 12-seat Commons majority, the party heads to Manchester in good spirits.

It has also been given a shot in the arm by Jeremy Corbyn's election as Labour leader and the infighting which preceded and followed his victory.

The key theme of the conference will be stability, security and opportunity. As the party eyes next year's Scottish, Welsh and English council elections and the London mayoral contest, it wants to hammer home its message that the country is safer in their hands.

It is perhaps no coincidence that the four-day event is taking place in a city that lies at the heart of Chancellor George Osborne's Northern Powerhouse project.

That said, Manchester is traditionally a Labour stronghold, with no Conservative representation in the area at either a local or national level.

The European issue

While the party meets amid a rosy backdrop, there is a rather dark cloud hanging over the horizon: Europe. David Cameron is busy trying to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership of the European Union, with an in/out referendum to be held by the end of 2017.

But Britain's aims have been forced down the European agenda by a summer dominated by the migrants crisis and the situation in the eurozone, leading some to doubt whether the prime minister will be able to exact sufficient concessions from his European counterparts to achieve meaningful EU reform.

The PM - who has said he wants the UK to remain in a reformed EU - faces the hard task of keeping his Eurosceptic backbenchers on side and avoiding internal divisions which have proved so fatal to the party, and its leaders, in the past.

There are several fringe events dedicated to the EU question, so journalists will inevitably be on the look out for any hints of splits, off-message comments, or, perhaps, any indication of when the poll might be.

Both Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne have staked a lot on the referendum and if the government were to lose it, the PM's position would arguably be precarious.

Succession talk

David Cameron's famously candid declaration during the general election campaign that he would quit before the 2020 general election set the unofficial succession train in motion. There are reports he intends to step down in the spring of 2019, to allow time for his replacement to be in place before the nation heads to the polls - though Downing Street has said he will serve the "full" five years of the term.

Nevertheless, speculation abounds as to who will replace him. The PM has tipped Chancellor George Osborne, London Mayor Boris Johnson and Home Secretary Theresa May as potential future Conservative leaders, while Education Secretary Nicky Morgan has hinted she might like a stab at the job, and Business Secretary Sajid Javid is also named as a potential challenger.

It is a subject that is likely to be on the minds and tongues of conference-goers, and those in the running to replace to Mr Cameron will be keen to make their best impressions to the party.

Their words and actions will be interesting, so keep an eye out for Osborne's conference speech on Monday, and for Boris Johnson, Mrs May and Mrs Morgan who all address the party on Tuesday. Journalists will no doubt be monitoring what they are up to on the fringes as well.

Cameron's vision

But for all that succession talk, David Cameron remains the Conservative party leader for now, and it is his speech that will be the main attraction of the event. As is always the case at Conservative conferences, the leader will address the party faithful on the final day (Wednesday), bringing it to a close.

For Mr Cameron, this will be his first conference speech as prime minister of an all-Conservative government. He is likely to outline what he wants to achieve over the next five years, free from the restraints of coalition politics, and draw a contrast between his programme and uncertainty over Labour's intentions.

Protests and publications

While there is sure to be a lot of love within the conference hall, outside the venue may be a different story.

Tens of thousands of people are expected to attend a week of anti-Conservative and anti-austerity protests in Manchester city centre, organised by the TUC and the People's Assembly to coincide with the Conservative event. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will be among them, addressing a rally on the Monday. Protestors will also be demonstrating against the government's proposed changes to trade union strike reforms.

Conservative Party chairman Lord Feldman has reportedly advised party conference goers to hide their passes when they are away from the conference venue.

The publication of former Tory treasurer Lord Ashcroft's unofficial biography of David Cameron also threatens to be an unwelcome distraction for the party. Extracts of 'Call Me Dave', serialised by the Daily Mail, made the headlines a few weeks back, with allegations of Mr Cameron's university days.

The book was due to be released after the Tory conference, but as the spat between two men further soured, its release date was brought forward by the peer. The party will no doubt be hoping it does not scupper the positive headlines they will be hoping to generate at the conference.

Foreign policy

It comes against the backdrop of the ongoing civil war in Syria, the threat of so-called Islamic State and the migrants crisis in Europe.

The government is said to be considering whether to seek parliamentary approval to extend its involvement in air strikes against IS fighters in Iraq, to Syria. Could we hear anything from the PM on this?

And might the party use the opportunity to attack the credibility of Labour's new leader, Jeremy Corbyn, who the Tories say is a threat to Britain's security?

Defence Secretary Michael Fallon has already criticised Mr Corbyn for saying he would not be prepared to use Britain's nuclear weapon if he was prime minister but too much criticism of the left-winger leader looks unlikely, because...

Ministers have been warned not to attack the Labour leader in their conference speeches to avoid coming across as bullying him, the Sun's Westminster correspondent Harry Cole reports.

He says the chancellor has issued an edict saying the party must do all it can "to avoid appearing smug or sneering" as they gather in Manchester for the first time since winning a Commons majority.

Former Tory treasurer and donor Lord Ashcroft has sounded a similar argument in an article for grassroots website ConservativeHome.

He says that "however pleased with themselves they may all deservedly feel, they must take care not to show it", advising that the tone "should be one of business as usual: getting on with the job, delivering on the policies on which they were elected".

And he warns that a "long, noisy, self-indulgent row about Europe" would only abstract from the Conservatives' electoral message.

Conference highlights

Sunday 4 October

14.00: Conference opens

14.15 - 16.00: Speeches from Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, Defence Secretary Michael Fallon; International Development Secretary Justine Greening

Monday 5 October

10.30 - 12.30: Speeches from Business Secretary Sajid Javid; Culture Secretary John Whittingdale; Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin and Chancellor George Osborne

14.30 - 16.00: Speeches from Energy and Climate Change Secretary Amber Rudd; Communities and Local Government Secretary Greg Clark; Environment Food and Rural Affairs Liz Truss

Tuesday 6 October

10.30 - 11.45: Speeches from Justice Secretary Michael Gove; Home Secretary Theresa May

11.50 - 12.30: London Mayor Boris Johnson and Tory London mayoral candidate Zac Goldsmith address conference

14.30 - 16.15: Speeches from Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith; Education Secretary Nicky Morgan and Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt

Wednesday 7 October

10.00 - 11.30: Leader of the Welsh Conservatives Andrew RT Davies; Wales Office Secretary Stephen Crabb; Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers; Scotland Secretary David Mundell and Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davidson

11.30: David Cameron delivers his leader's speech