UK and the EU: Better off out or in?

A referendum on whether Britain should remain in the European Union is to be held on Thursday, 23 June, David Cameron has confirmed. Here is a summary of the key arguments for and against British membership.

Are there any viable options for Britain leaving the EU?

If Britain votes to leave the EU, it will have to negotiate a new trading relationship with what would now be a 27 member organisation, to allow British firms to sell goods and services to EU countries without being hit by excessive tariffs and other restrictions.

Better off out: Britain could negotiate an "amicable divorce", but retain strong trading links with EU nations, say those campaigning for Britain's exit.

Some potential models:

• The Norwegian model: Britain leaves the EU and joins the European Economic Area, giving it access to the single market, with the exception of some financial services, but freeing it from EU rules on agriculture, fisheries, justice and home affairs
• The Swiss model: Britain emulates Switzerland, which is not a member of the EU but negotiates trade treaties on a sector-by-sector basis
• The Turkish model: The UK could enter into a customs union with the EU, allowing access to the free market in manufactured goods but not financial services

The UK could seek to negotiate a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU, similar to the Swiss model but with better access for financial services and more say over how rules and standards are implemented

The UK could make a clean break with the EU, relying on its membership of the World Trade Organisation as a basis for trade

Many of those campaigning for exit argue that none of the country-based models would work for the UK.

They want a Free Trade Agreement which would not involve the UK accepting the supremacy of EU law, the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, the free movement of people or the requirement to pay significant amounts into the EU budget.

Given the fact that there is already full regulatory compliance between the UK and EU, they say it would be easier to negotiate than past trade deals.

They point to Canada, which recently signed a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement with the EU, which is set to eliminate trade barriers in most areas but does not require free movement or budgetary contributions, as an example of what is possible.

Better off in: An "amicable divorce" is a pipe dream, pro-EU campaigners argue. France, Germany and other leading EU nations would never allow Britain a "pick and mix" approach to the bloc's rules. Norway and Switzerland have to abide by many EU rules without any influence over how they are formed and have to pay to access the single market. Negotiating a comprehensive free trade agreement could take years and have an uncertain outcome. And if Britain went for a completely clean break with the EU its exports would be subject to tariffs and would still have to meet EU production standards, harming the competitiveness of British business. The end result could be a trade war between Britain and the EU, some have warned, which could cripple Britain's export industries.

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Boris Johnson: 'The Man Who Tried'

Laura Kuenssberg

Silence abhors a vacuum, and forgive me if you are not a fan of political conspiracy, and on a day like today you don't have to look very far for huge ideological disputes, even if they're not quite yet punch-ups.

Iain Duncan Smith, in what he said was his first interview on Europe in 10 years, has just told me that staying in the EU puts us at increased risk of an appalling attack like the terrorist killings in Paris, while the prime minister was on the TV sofa this morning saying that we are safer in the union.

This is the new, if temporary reality: cabinet ministers disagreeing totally with each other on the record, and in public. Traditionally unthinkable, certainly risky, and difficult to control.

Plenty of disagreements are spilling out into the public domain now. But while Boris Johnson keeps his counsel, not for very much longer, there is of course huge speculation not just about what he is going to do, but about what his motivations are.

So while we wait, this is not provable, and unless Machiavellian machinations deep in the Conservative party interest you, you probably shouldn't read much further. But believe me, on long days in Westminster, this is the kind of hypothesising that concerns politicians and their teams.

Ready?

Conspiracy One - Michael Gove's decision to go with the Vote Leave campaign was taken to make sure that Chancellor George Osborne will be challenged in the eventual Tory leadership by someone who is a chum, who looks on him favourably, but who would get onto the final ballot (which crucially only has two contenders) as someone who can claim to the party membership which is broadly Eurosceptic, that they fought to leave the EU, even though they were then sadly defeated.

This, so Conspiracy One goes, is why Mr Gove's decision to join Vote Leave has not impressed some true believers in the cause and, in any case, his public image may well not be a benefit to them.

Conspiracy Two - Doing the rounds inside Number 10 and Number 11 (the chancellor's abode) so the theory goes, is that Boris is intent on becoming 'The Man Who Tried'. What? Well, as people await his likely final decision to plump for Brexit, Downing Street has concluded that he will go for Leave precisely because he is confident that they will lose.

This allows him to create the perfect platform for his leadership ambition - campaign for Leave, Remain wins, but Boris manages to then glide onto the leadership ballot as the man who gave it his damnedest, didn't quite pull it off, but can scoop up oodles of votes from the broken-hearted Tory membership, despairing in defeat, but ready to go over the top for their hero.

This kills Mr Gove, or anyone else's chances of opposing Mr Osborne in the final round of the leadership contest.

If you got this far, and feel enlightened by it all, then marvellous. If it seems fanciful, then don't say I didn't warn you!

But with the prime minister having already announced that he's leaving his job before the next election, there is no escaping the fact that the future of the Tory leadership is a factor in both sides' campaigns./Agencies