Is this the end of the beginning for Brexit?

Mark Stone

The prime minister will hold separate private meetings with the presidents of the European Commission and Council.

Theresa May's journey to Brussels will, probably, mark the end of the beginning of the long process of extracting the United Kingdom from the European Union.

Assuming everything goes to plan and all last-minute objections are overcome, the deal which will formally remove the UK from the EU will pass its first hurdle this weekend.

Mrs May will hold separate private meetings with the presidents of the European Commission and Council, Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk.

On Sunday morning, she and the leaders of the remaining 27 countries of the EU will gather for a specially convened Brexit summit at which they are expected to formally rubber stamp the Brexit deal.

On Friday, representatives from remaining EU countries met for final discussions about the two documents which make up the Britain's EU exit agreement.

It is understood that a one-page statement, or addendum, is to be published alongside the two main documents in an attempt to iron out last-minute disagreements among member countries over fishing, Gibraltar, and a "level playing field" for potential EU market access.

By Friday night, the only issue outstanding was Gibraltar following a repeated threat through this week by the Spanish prime minister to "veto Brexit" if he doesn't receive assurances that Gibraltar would be treated separately in any future EU/UK trade deal.

While Spain does not officially have the ability to veto any agreement at the European Council, the forum operates on consensus and sources have told Sky News that the issue has caused "a lot of trouble".

Officials at the European Council, with negotiators from both sides, have been trying to find a form of words which works for both sides.

Assuming consensus is found, this weekend will be the culmination of more than 18 months of negotiations which began in March 2017, after Britain formally declared its intention to leave the EU by triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

Since then - on an almost weekly basis - negotiating teams from the UK and the European Commission, on behalf of the EU member countries, have been locked in talks. They have been tense and, at times, seemingly irreconcilable.

This weekend's summit will see the agreement which the negotiators reached last week ratified by the European Council of EU leaders.

The UK Parliament will then have a so-called meaningful vote on the agreement in the coming weeks. Assuming that votes passes, the European Parliament will then vote on the agreement.

The first of the two documents - the withdrawal agreement - specifically deals with the divorce. Comprising 585 pages, it is the legal text which formally untangles the UK from more than 40 years of membership of the EU.

The dense legal document covers three specific areas: citizens rights, the so-called financial settlement (the UK's financial commitments as a departing EU member) and the Irish border.

The text includes the controversial backstop which is an insurance policy to ensure that there is no hard border on the island of Ireland in the event that no future free trade deal can be sought which itself removes the need for a border.

A demonstrator holds a sign that reads 'Brexit. Is it worth it?' whilst draped in European Union (EU) and Union flags, as he protests outside the Houses of Parliament in central London on September 10, 2018

The backstop, which Theresa May says is unlikely ever to be used, would see the whole of the UK remain in a customs union with the EU plus Northern Ireland remain in elements of the EU's single market too. This would tie the UK to EU rules and financial commitments as well as prevent it from being able to sign its own independent trade deals.

The second paper, when initially published as a draft last week, was just seven pages. But it has since been the subject of intense last-minute negotiations by UK and EU negotiators and now stands at 36 pages.

It is a "political declaration" of a framework for the future relationship that both sides aspire to build once the UK has left the EU in March next year. It is not a legal text and is not binding.

It pledges to create the closest possible partnership between the UK and the EU. It talks of an "ambitious, broad, deep and flexible partnership across trade and economic cooperation, law enforcement and criminal justice, foreign policy, security and defence and wider areas of cooperation".

However critics say it carries no guarantees on what future relationship can be achieved and is light on detail, specifically over the type of solutions which could prevent a border on the island of Ireland.

It reads: "The parties recall their determination to replace the backstop solution on Northern Ireland by a subsequent agreement that establishes alternative arrangements for ensuring the absence of a hard border on the Island of Ireland on a permanent footing" but gives no detail on what the "alternative arrangements" are.

The document makes no mention of the prime minister's previous aspirations for "frictionless trade".

A central plank of her Chequers proposal last July was frictionless trade with the EU. However that was quickly rejected by Brussels which won't allow it without single market membership and a full commitment by the UK to freedom of movement of people as well as goods. The new document appears to accept this fact.

The document describes the UK developing its own "independent trade policy" but later pledges to "build and improve on the single customs territory provided for in the withdrawal agreement", a line which, on the face of it, is not compatible with an independent trade policy.

Assuming the European Council approves the agreement, the next stage is parliamentary approval in both the European Parliament and the UK Parliament.

If the agreement clears both those hurdles, it will pave the way for an orderly exit on 29 March 2019 and a two-year transition period (extendable once for a yet-to-be-agreed period) during which the UK remains effectively an EU member but without a seat at the table./sky